Living through historic moments, it’s hard to tell when a turning point comes. Really its only in hindsight, after years that we know if that moment was the thing that turned it or became nothing at all. Heck, we have all lived through big events thinking they would be historic moments and then they either turned out to be nothing or something else came along to jump to the front of that notorious line. In the moment, we can only go on our insights and wait to see if we were right or wrong.
For the past month political Ottawa has been seized with the media stories around alleged interference in our elections and democracies by malign foreign nations. From the time the first few stories came in February, there have been a few moments where I know that some people thought that we came to a turning point moment. Yet, the story has chugged along and while the reports and allegations have been disturbing, I would argue that we hadn’t hit that point yet.
We’ve seen the current Liberal government try to avoid a public inquiry on this at all costs, to the point of making the most idle of threats just on Monday, only to back down the next day. They’ve fought and fought against putting this into fully independent hands, all while being unable or unwilling to answer the most basic questions about why they would go so far to avoid this. As I pointed out on Monday, if there is such an answer that already existed, we would have heard it by now.
Yet that hasn’t happened, leaving the rest of us to fill that void with our own conclusions as to what it might be. By refusing to be transparent with us and answer with full candor, it leaves it to others to fill in the blanks. That approach comes with a lot of inherent danger, that things could get that much wore and further beyond your control. It appears that we might be seeing play out in real time tonight, and folks, this feels like one of those moments:
Drip, Drip, Drip, more allegations come out, with some stunning reporting from Global News’ Sam Cooper. And honestly stunning doesn’t feel like it’s doing these allegations justice. The report alleges, according to two separate national security sources, that Liberal MP Han Dong “ privately advised a senior Chinese diplomat in February 2021 that Beijing should hold off freeing Michael and Michael Spavor.”
The report alleges that the sources told Global that Mr. Dong suggested to Han Tao (China’s consul general in Toronto) that if Beijing released the Two Michaels “the Opposition Conservatives would benefit.” It goes onto state that the Prime Ministers Office didn’t know about this and “only became aware that a conversation took place after Mr. Dong told us” following questions from Global News on the topic. There are more details so if you want to read those, you can visit the Global News site to read them there.
When it comes to the allegations involved here, these are extremely damning and takes us further down a twisted road on this story. For years various media outlets around the world have reported about the Government of China attempts to influence domestic politics in many countries like ours (like in Australia and New Zealand). Before now, none of these reports here at home took this beyond that. The previous reports alleged that some actors allegedly attached to the Chinese government we allegedly taking advantage of our political systems and laws, but none of it came across as being something that was invited or requested. And to be fair, it’s been generally agreed upon that those alleged attempts had not successfully change a government or your vote.
But where this report and these allegations differ is the alleged contact and advice given by an elected member of the federal government of the day to a malign foreign power. Add to that the allegations in this report around the seriousness of the issue that advice was given on, the arrest/hostage taking of the Two Michaels. Then layer on top of that alleged advice was not to the benefit of those Two Michaels, or even Canada’s standing, but about the alleged political benefit to the party of the government.
That takes this to a whole different level of story, scandal, and problem for this government. If any part of what has been reported is true, at minimum how in the Hell does Mr. Dong say in the Liberal caucus? If MPP Vincent Ke had to step away from Doug Ford’s Conservative caucus for the allegations reported about him, how in the sweet Hell can Mr. Dong stay in Mr. Trudeau’s caucus? Heck, how long is too long before Mr. Trudeau throws him out of his caucus himself over these reported allegations? And what impact will this have on the ability of the Liberal government to continue to govern if they continue to insist on their current non-approach approach?
These are all real live questions, ones that the Prime Minister would have been better equipped to deal with if he had actually struck an independent, public inquiry into allegations of foreign interference right away. This new story shows exactly why we need that public inquiry, to take it out of the partisan sphere and get to the bottom of this properly. Instead, according to the mandate letter given to the Special Rapporteur, we won’t know until October 31st, 2023 if he believes that public inquiry is even needed. On Halloween folks. Yep, the sad jokes write themselves.
I pointed out yesterday that the next week ahead for this Prime Minister might be the last, best chance he has to turn things around with his government. Depending on the reaction from the government to this reporting from Global News, that chance may very well be gone. I’ve been firmly on the record for many months saying that we won’t have an election in 2023 and this Parliament would hold until 2024 at least. My only caveat to that has been to say that “unless something huge comes along to change the political calculus”, something so bad that it made it impossible for enough opposition MPs to support the governments agenda on confidence votes.
The best and most recent example of such an event would be the Sponsorship Scandal and the results of the report from Justice Gomery on it. When that came, the fallout made it impossible for Jack Layton’s NDP to continue to work with the government of the Martin Liberals. It was a bridge too far to get past, and things unfurled as we know they did. In that case, Gomery turned out to be that turning point.
Will this report kick off that turning point this time? We won’t know for a long time but I cringe at the thought of what story would be worse to push this one out of contention. And oh, in case you forgot, the President of the United States and the travelling White House press corps will be in Ottawa tomorrow to hear it all firsthand and report on it. The next 24 hours will tell us a lot about how this will go and what might come next. This report is a serious escalation to this whole issue, and this is not something that the Prime Minister and his caucus can push aside or wish away. That response remains in the Prime Ministers hands and the way things are going, it might be the most important response of his time in office.