Minority governments in Canada are usually not the most straightforward thing or lack for any drama. In the best of circumstances, there is always the threat that an election could be sprung to someone’s advantage, just because it’s to that parties advantage. But in most of those cases, those threats are just that; threats. They’re bluster, hot air, loud words signifying nothing or put a bit more directly, complete and utter bullshit. And that’s when there isn’t something serious on the public agenda to really raise the temperature.
Of course right now we’ve got a pretty serious matter of public interest on the political agenda; the allegations of attempts at foreign interference by malign foreign powers surely qualify as serious by any objective standard. We’re talking about the health of our very democratic system and principles, so any discussions around that are by their nature very serious. It’s becoming clearer by the day that the only acceptable way to deal with these allegations and actually deal with peoples legitimate concerns is to have an independent, public inquiry. The events of the past few days have also shown that no matter how highly one might feel about former Governor General David Johnston and his impressive track record of work, his personal connections to the Trudeau family and other things that other have raised show that he is not the right person for this job.
It all feels that in some, way, shape or form this should be heading towards that public inquiry. Yet tonight it looks like the Liberal government of Mr. Trudeau has decided to play an overly high-risk game of chicken with Parliament, one that has become a topic of conversation:
Okay, lets set the scene here. Today the House of Commons debated a Conservative Opposition Day motion to call the House of Commons Standing Committee on Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics to start a study on foreign interference (specifically regarding China by name and no other nation), and as a part of it calling on various people to testify. That list includes Mr. Trudeau’s Chief of Staff, Katie Telford, who the Liberals have been filibustering at committee to prevent from testifying on this matter. Basically, the Conservatives tried one door, have been blocked, and are now trying another.
When faced with this the Liberals are now throwing around the threat to make this a confidence vote, something that would raise the stakes on this whole situation if they actually followed through on the threat at lost. It would mean an election, tout suite, and the government falling. It sure makes for high drama, right?
Well it would, if the threat had any actual substance or meat behind it and here is the thing; that threat is an empty as they come. It’s a threat being made to try to whip the NDP into line, which is part of the calculus the Conservatives made by making the motion all about China and ignoring all threats, including the documented ones from Russia and Iran. The Conservatives overplay their hand trying to wedge the NDP, and in response, the Liberals try to do the same to the NDP.
But here is the problem for both Mr. Trudeau, Mr. Poilievre, and the Blue and Red teams; the threats are about as empty a Silicon Valley Bank vault. They are ephemeral, hot air and full of nothing but bluster and completely lacking seriousness. When it comes to the Official Opposition, that’s what any party in this spot tends to do (usually to the detriment of their credibility over time), so that’s par for the course. It’s the threat of doubling-down by the Liberals here that is quite noteworthy. Let me list the reasons why their threat is the most unserious of them all:
No party is ready for any election right now (not even close to ready): the Liberals have a small handful of incumbent candidates nominated (literally in the single digits), which is more than any other party. So between the major parties, that’s well over 1,000 people that need to be vetted, nominated, then registered with Elections Canada after these threatened writs are drawn up, with next to no staff or infrastructure in place to support that? Then talk about no party having any election platform ready, or campaign planes and buses booked, or anything of the sort? That’s not getting fixed in a matter of a few weeks, that takes much longer.
People point to the money needed to run a campaign and say that’s why certain parties don’t want an election. But all parties are ahead of their past fundraising marks (including the NDP) and between rebates from the 2021 election (which BTW can typically pay for about half of a full national campaign) and campaign loans, money is the easiest thing to wrangle together at the last moment. A party can get the $20 million or so needed to run a full national campaign together much faster than any of those other things listed above. That makes any threat to trigger an election an empty one, either from the Conservatives who always say it or from the Liberals, who are trying to use the threat to get out of this jam.
Look at the Calendar: A quick look at the Parliamentary calendar gives you another major clue about how empty the Liberals threats on plunging Canadians into an election are over a forced confidence vote. Joe Biden is in town on Thursday for crying out loud, the first time as US President has come to visit Ottawa in close to a decade. Are you telling me that Mr. Trudeau is going to blow up the current stable minority government over this, right now? Lets not forget that the Federal budget comes down a week later, on top of all the major legislation that is still on the docket that hasn’t received Royal Assent yet. There is too much of their agenda at stake to force an election now. They need those wins when they eventually do face the electorate to have any chance of winning another term.
The mood of the electorate: This government has been dogged by issues around cost of living for a year now. Experts keep telling us we’re on the cusp of a recession. The war in Ukraine will likely require more assistance from NATO and who knows where that will all end up geopolitically. Those factors alone would make for a terrible time to go to the electorate early asking for another mandate, especially when you have a working Parliament thanks to the Supply and Confidence agreement with the NDP. If people were mad at an unnecessary election in 2021, image the anger after doing it again under these circumstances. That would make a terrible environment to send yourself to an election in, which is why almost every government would try to avoid it if they could.
Now add this current issue on top of that, including the fact that polling clearly shows the Liberals are demonstrably offside on the need for a public inquiry. You’re trying to tell me, with a straight face, that you want to go into an election facing all of that? That’s a recipe for an electoral wipeout, the likes of which the Liberals faced in 2011 when they were relegated to third place in the House and the Bloc Quebecois was nearly relegated to the dustbin of history.
No answer to the most important question of all: Before any government would consider triggering an election with such a move, there is a pretty important question they will need to be able to answer: Why? Why is this matter so important that you must bring down this whole Parliament, where you’re accomplishing just about everything you want to? There has to be a compelling reason for a government to pull this card in any situation, and they need to be able to explain it clearly to the public because they will want to know.
If there is such an answer that already exists, such a strong reason that makes this motion so offensive to this government, I believe we would have heard it already. Really folks, that’s been the story through this whole situation, a lack of candour and transparency from the government (within what would be considered reasonable). If you’re going to bring down a functioning government and send Canadians into a 6-week, $500 million election campaign, you better have a damn good answer to that question that not only answers peoples concerns, but brings them onto your side.
And folks, that last point is why I think this is the biggest bluff this government has made to date, period. They can’t answer that question because if they could in a helpful way, they would have already. If they had that good answer it would be said on a loop for everyone to hear loud and clear. Instead they’ve been fighting it tooth and nail with all the procedural measures in committee at their disposal, sometimes to the point of insanity and offence to the senses. They are fighting so hard to not answer that question, which leaves us all to wonder what the answer is. We don’t know what it is, but given that we’re all being left to wonder what it might be and come to our own conclusions, that won’t create “winning conditions” for any incumbent government.
In the end, there is no way this government wants to go to the electorate right now for all those reasons and more. This bluff is a terrible over-playing of their hands that when you look at the facts, comes across as seriously unserious on their part. Some think that this wedges the NDP but I would argue the polar opposite; their position is no better or worse than the other parties when it comes to being ready for a full, national campaign.
On top of that, there is talk from respected members of the Parliamentary Press Gallery that the NDP will be using their next Opposition Day motion to call for an actual independent inquiry, which gives the NDP a chance to play the constructive role they have being playing this entire Parliament. So if they vote against this torqued motion from the Conservatives that only focuses on one malign actor (therefore ignoring the wider problem), they can bring their own motion that can actually deal with the full problem, as the Canadian people want.
When it comes down to it, this development today was not this governments finest call and if they actually follow through on their overplayed bluff, it might turn into one of the worst miscalculations in Canadian political history. Or instead they could back off the bluster and help Canadians get to the bottom of this serious issue that all of us, of all political stripes, want and deserve a proper answer to. Your move Red team.