So yesterday happened and well, that was something wasn’t it? We ended the day with a result that buys we Canadians a reprieve. Given how things were looking on Friday, I think that most of us would have taken that result to keep us moving forward. It’s far from an ideal result, which I’ll come back to later. But it’s where we start today and that’s a better spot than where we started the day before.
The obvious from this part of this episode does need to be said out loud though and the lessons that we can take from it. For starters, it’s notable that calling Donald Trump’s bluff was clearly the right move. By standing up for ourselves, pushing back against his crap and making threats of our own that we were actually backing up, Trump folded. He talked about others having to feel pain for what he was forcing on everyone else but as many people suspected, him feeling political pain was not on the table.
What exactly did he get from us by doing this shit? Almost nothing more than we offered him back before Christmas time. The only “new” piece here was the announcing of a “border czar.” Heck putting a formal number of 10,000 people who “are or will be” on the border is new, but is it really? When Prime Minister Trudeau announced his $1.3 Billion plan back before Christmas, are we to believe that didn’t already include close to or 10,000 people, from some combination of existing staff and new hires? Like seriously, the fact that it landed on 10,000 is a funny coincidence given that Mexico gave that exact same number in the morning for their “deal”. But you don’t need to take my word for that, some traditional Conservative outlets in the US are stating that already.
I know we like to crap on Justin Trudeau’s penchant for “words over actions” and “messaging above all,” and that’s all fair criticism that I’ve made many times myself. But you could argue that skill came in particular handy here to convince Trump more was somehow being done than before. That skill for “style over substance” is something that can work well when you’re dealing with a vain person like Donald Trump. But to be fair, this wasn’t a Trudeau alone production. We got to this place because everyone used their skills, their networks, their approaches and got us here by pushing together. It takes having a diverse amount of skills and personalities to get a job like this done. We can look across the board and see how that worked here, showing how regions with disparate views and concerns can come together in common cause to fight for Canada. Even though it may not have looked like the best organized team ever, it truly was a Team Canada approach, and we cannot forget that.
But probably the biggest lesson that we must take from this episode is that things will not be the same after these past weeks. Too much has happened to be forgotten and swept under the rug. Donald Trump right up until tomorrow afternoon was still saying he wants Canada to be “the 51st state”, and I refuse to believe that will stop now. On top of that, Trump has shown that he as impetuous as his word is untrustworthy. He set out the destruction of a massive trade deal that he himself negotiated, showing that his own signature is not worth the paper he wrote it on.
We can’t assume he won’t pull this shit again in 30 days. Hell, we can’t assume that he won’t eat a bad Big Mac at night in the White House Residence on a random evening next week, start to hallucinate about the Swedes or Luxembourg being out to get the US, and then go to his social media and tell us he’s signing all those tariffs on us just as soon as he can get his morning McMuffins. We knew this already, because we saw this shit for four years during his first term and if this episode has shown us anything, he’s only worse now. And when you add to that his own party won’t stand up to him and he’s deliberately surrounded himself with the worst kind of “Yes Men” available, it can get much worse.
To say that the United States as currently governed cannot be counted on to be stable or reliable is now abundantly clear to us. We would love nothing more than to be proven wrong on this point, but that doesn’t appear to be on the menu. Adding to that, we must now also assume that the current American government does not see Canada as an ally, a friend or even a colleague. Just as vanishing few Republicans spoke out against this tariff BS (it’s a cold day in you know where when Rand Paul is the one whose most vocally on this), even fewer have spoken out about Trump’s expansionist views. In fact, far more elected Republicans have gone on the record cheering this on than have come out telling him to stop it. That right there tells you how deep that rot goes and that we can’t count on whatever friends we think we have there to step in on our behalf.
That means starting immediately, we need to be using this time, however long or short that it is, to insulate ourselves from this threat and find newer customers and alliances that we can be more confident in. Eliminating provincial trade barriers? Absolutely. Upgrade major infrastructure like train lines and ports so we can avoid shipping through the US? Let’s do it. Does that go as far as pipelines? Time will tell but I would argue that if you can’t make that case now in a reasonable way while still respecting the rights of Indigenous peoples along the routes, you’ll never be able to do it. But the fact that we’re even openly having that discussion right now tells you how much things have changed because of this and how potential paths forward could be found.
We also need to start thinking out of the box about what we do going forward regarding our external relationships. We’ve seen lots of people talk about joining the European Union, and I have to say that’s an interesting one to explore on many levels. Clearly having our free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region is a big help right now and a chance to grow even more markets there. There is the CANZUK idea that some have floated, which takes on a certain allure at this point. We can do any combination of all those things, which is another good option. And that’s before we talk about some of the less desirable options that will likely come knocking on our doorstep, like China.
What the Americans don’t seem to appreciate or understand is that they are not our only option. Yes, we likely have too great a percentage of our trade with them but unlike the USA under Trump, we’ve actually built many strong trading relationships around the world. Remember that when we signed onto the Trans-Pacific Partnership, first-term Trump scrapped American involvement in that, something that hasn’t been undone to this day. And as Trump gets more belligerent and more, well, Trumpy, the United States is going to find out fast that “America First” is quickly becoming “America All Alone”.
So, we have this window in front of us, we’ve had this awful experience that brought us all closer together and it’s made us stronger as a result. But folks, this ain’t over. Donald Trump isn’t done with us, not by a long shot. Yes we need to take a deep breath and regroup after the events of the past days, but we also need to keep moving forward and getting ready for what’s coming next. Things will never be the same between us and the United States after this episode and today is the day that we start applying those lessons that we’ve learned to ensure that Canada continues to forever be the True North Strong and Free.