The Race Not Run and The Run to 2026

The Strength of a New Leader and What's Lost in Acclamation

2022 has been a chaotic year without a doubt, with a lot of stress, screaming, cheap shots and drama. And that was all before the World Cup got here. The longer this year went along, I think that most of us would have welcomed a big political happening taking place in this country that didn’t involve all those things and was generally peaceful. I know I sure would have. But that’s what exactly happened this week and I must admit I come away from it with mixed feelings and some concerns.

That event was the end of the Ontario NDP’s leadership race, although calling it a “race” turned out to be quite the misnomer. It’s not a race if there is only one person involved, and when the deadline to enter the race passed yesterday, there was only one person who stepped forward to fill the shoes of the departed Andrea Horwath. Davenport MPP Marit Stiles stood alone and as the deadline to enter passed yesterday, she was acclaimed as the next leader of Ontario’s New Democrats and by virtue of that, the Leader of His Majesty’s Official Opposition at Queen’s Park.

The end result, as Stiles taking the reigns, is not one that I have a problem with. Depending on who got into the race, there was a good chance that she would have been my first choice in any vote that too place. She’s someone whose professional and political background is a right fit to balancing the base of the NDP in Ontario. Although represents a downtown Toronto riding, she worked for former ONDP MPP Gilles Bisson of Timmins during the years of the Rae government. She worked in Ottawa for the Federal NDP at the turn of the millennium, for the federal NDP's Ontario caucus. After that, she went to go work for the union ACTRA, where she was the director of research, public policy, and communications. Also before her election at Queen’s Park in 2018, she was elected to a term as a trustee for the Toronto District School Board and served a term as President of the Federal NDP. That breadth of experience was always going to look good during a leadership campaign and in my mind, is the kind of background I would expect in any successful NDP leader in Ontario.

It's not to say that others whose names were floated or who chose not to run didn’t have strong resumes of their own. Long-time Finance Critic Catherine Fife, MPP for Waterloo was seen by many as a strong contender and would have brought an impressive background of her own into the race. But she turned down the chance in late October. Kiiwetinoong MPP Sol Mamakwa was another strong potential candidate from the North, bringing his long experience working in the Northwest of the province and the Far North in health care and governance. He said no last week. Two other strong voices from caucus, Dr. Jill Andrew from Toronto-St. Paul’s, and Chris Glover from Spadina-Fort York both also took a pass late in proceedings. And despite some high-profile potential names from outside the Queen’s Park caucus, none stepped forward.

In the end, for their own reasons, none decided to take the plunge and that is something I respect. Having been involved in running three leadership campaigns myself, I’ve seen what those races look like and what is expected of a candidate just to run. It’s a huge sacrifice and if you win, the sacrifice just continues for years to come. It’s not a decision to take lightly, and clearly these folks did not.

But despite ending up with a strong new leader with great potential to lead Ontario’s New Democrats into the next provincial election in 2026, I’m not coming away from this result feeling as good as one probably should. The reason for that is pretty simple; we didn’t have a race. Leadership campaigns are important activities for the health and prospects of any political party. Yes, they come with risks, but the benefits far outweigh them. Stiles rising to the leadership without a contest leaves a lot of missed opportunities on the table and some open questions left unanswered.

Firstly, leadership campaigns are the point where you see probably the most activity within a party outside of an election. It’s where you see party membership numbers usually peak, with people from everywhere signing up to vote for their candidate. That includes past members coming back into the flock and new members, dipping their feet in the orange pool for the first time. Party fundraising totals usually get a big boost as well, giving the coffers a shot in the arm while also bringing in many first-time donors, who can be reached out to again after the race is done. That is what happens when you get multiple campaigns all organizing to get their candidates over the finish line. It creates energy, buzz, money and so much that any new leader can then build off. None of that will happen this time, and that is a difficult opportunity to lose.

Secondly, leadership campaigns not only bring in new members, money, and energy, they bring in the next party leaders of the future. That campaign was the first leadership campaign I ever worked on, for Gilles Bisson. It was a great experience that helped to launch my career in politics and helped me get to Parliament Hill months later, sending me on a new path I had only dreamed about. I had that chance because Gilles gave me, some Métis kid from the bush around Kenora who volunteered for his campaign to do whatever, a chance. He and his team gave me chances to grow and take on more. They also showed me that I could belong in that space, something that never occurred to me. If there had never been a leadership race that time, I wouldn’t be here today doing this.  He helped launch my career in politics and I am forever grateful to him for that.

But during that race, I also got to know other party members and activists working on other campaigns. I made some amazing friendships from all sides and got to know some amazing organizers with great potential. Many of those friends are people I got to spend a lot more time with over the years, as staff on Parliament Hill, on election campaigns and doing punditry. From the young activists that I met on that campaign, many have gone onto bigger things and play big roles in electing New Democrats across the country, including during the 2011 federal campaign that brought us to our highest heights. Two became party secretaries in two other provinces, helping to build them in those places. While I had my opportunities that came from that race, others had similar ones that helped to build the Ontario NDP and the NDP as a whole to higher heights. It was a leadership race that created that opportunity for those people. Given that there won’t be a leadership race this time, I can’t help but think how many in the next generation of New Democrats with great potential won’t get those opportunities, and how that will hurt the party further down the road.

Finally, the ONDP elected Andrea Horwath as leader in early March 2009. I can’t help but think about how different things were then. And that makes come sense; it was well over 13 years ago. Think about how much has changed in society, our politics and in the world. The idea of “Mayor Rob Ford” was inconceivable to many back then, forget about the idea of “two-term Premier Doug Ford”. Heck, the idea of “Leader of the Opposition Andrea Horwath” was equally inconceivable to most of the public when she was chosen.

That’s a lot of change and when a party holds a leadership contest, it’s a chance for members to pass judgement on which direction the party itself should go and how the party should react to all that has changed. But on top of that, the stakes of this leadership campaign are very different from the last. The new ONDP leader comes into the job as Opposition Leader, the first time that has ever happened in the history of the party, period. With that comes an Ontario Liberal Party that is without official party status for the second legislature in a row, another thing that has never happened in the history of the province.

That leaves the new ONDP leader as the best chance to replace Doug Ford as Premier in 2026, which means the ONDP this time were choosing a leader with a very different job description then the last. When Andrea Horwath was elected, we were choosing a leader to help rebuild the third party and keep it alive. Having succeeded in that, this time ONDP members were going to elect a potential Premier in waiting, with all the weight and responsibility that comes with that. Those expectations demanded a race, to give members a say in what would be our future but also to give whoever the new leader was the chance to build their name, sand down any rough edges and become a better candidate for 2026. That is a lost opportunity that we cannot calculate at the moment, but it’s an experience lost that cannot be replicated or simulated. There’s nothing like the pressure that comes in those moments, the kind of pressure that the new leader will face in a provincial election. That pressure can crush us, but it can also make diamonds. That’s why leadership races are such a good experience for any new leader.

As I mentioned at the start, I’m happy with Marit Stiles as the new ONDP Leader. She was always one of the front runners in my mind and will make a great leader for this party. She has the right experience and temperament to do the job and I have all the faith in the world there. But I am felt feeling a bit cold about the whole thing, only because I know I would feel much better if this had been the result of a contested leadership race. That race mattered and would have been an important exercise for our politics; for party members, for the public and for the candidates. It may not always feel that way from the outside but having been on the inside it’s an invaluable experience that makes the winner and their party better down the road. We’ll see what, if any, effect this has on the Ontario NDP and their chances in 2026 but the decision has been made. The party is in capable and steady hands going forward with Marit, and we’ll see where this race leads us.